https://jsrtjournal.com/index.php/JSRT/issue/feed 2026-10-09T18:36:40+00:00 Open Journal Systems Journal Of Scientific Research And Technology (JSRT) is a peer reviewed, open access, multidisciplinary journal and proudly recognised under MSME Government of India. https://jsrtjournal.com/index.php/JSRT/article/view/569 2026-10-09T18:36:40+00:00 Dr. Prathmesh Vilas Patil [email protected] Mr. Rohan Dnyandev More [email protected] Mr. Milind N. Telavane [email protected]

<p>Build Operate Transfer infrastructure contracts expose public authorities, concessionaires and lenders to interacting construction, revenue and financing uncertainties. This article develops a simulation-based framework for screening risks, assessing financial consequences and comparing mitigation measures in an illustrative toll-road concession. No field survey or operating-project dataset is used. Eight risk categories are screened using assumed occurrence probabilities and conditional impacts. A reproducible Monte Carlo model generates 10,000 paired scenarios for capital expenditure, demand, operating cost, borrowing rates and commissioning delay. The baseline probability of stabilized debt-service coverage falling below unity is 42.2%, compared with 24.3% under an assumed mitigation package. Median project net present value changes from INR -308.6 crore to INR -233.8 crore after including an incremental mitigation cost. Demand and capital expenditure emerge as influential drivers of debt-service coverage within the specified model. The findings demonstrate a transparent assessment method rather than observed project performance. Contract-specific calibration, cash-flow scheduling and independent validation are required before applying the framework to investment or concession decisions.</p>

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